Poster’s Paradise

“What the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is doing now is simply buying time,” said Marian Tupy, an Africa specialist at the Washington-based Cato Institute, in an interview. The government hasn’t “decided what to do: to declare a state of emergency, to simply steal the election, or to postpone the day of reckoning by allowing a second round,” which would be held within three weeks if none of the presidential candidates win more than 50 percent.

Public dissatisfaction has grown with Mugabe’s 28-year rule after a decade of recession and the world’s highest inflation rate of 100,580 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBxEj8Qpm2W0&refer=home

A double top in 1998, and yet it broke down, and then went on to new highs.  To be sure this is a pause; in oil with demand increasing and with supply apparantly limited, this could be a flag.  We wait and see.

We have different styles; and while your approach employs a few tools that I do not,  I find your work very helpful.

I like when I need to answer a question in detail; it forces me to list the facts that support my opinion.  That you do the same makes your work a good education for me.

When I ‘dissect’ a chart, I sometimes find things that I did not expect to see.  This occurs when we are at turning points; sometimes these are only short term changes.  Sometimes they are larger formations and patterns that suggest more important changes ahead.

We are at one of those now; the charts have a lot of technical work to do to overcome the bearish patterns and signals that I see developing.  These need not fulfill; they need not be confirmed.  But, as we saw in April 2004, the signs that I wrote about in late January 2004, and later, were visibly correct in signalling the downside in the HUI that lay ahead.

Look at the bear flag in July 2007;  these things happen.  Yet a number of bear flags before that were simply bottoms.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p03667147475

Speaking of tops, I know you follow the XOI and FCX. As they haven’t broke down yet they still maybe saved. These are just a couple of H&S that are starting to show up on the longer term look that has me on the cautious side for the time being.
Thanks for all your input to the tent JBI. I know everyone appreciates it very much…Rambus

…….if, since GoldTent was created, there has ever been a seven day period in which the word “TOP” was used more than it has in the last 7 days….Mine, mine, mine! How quickly sentiment changes…… just a thought, don’t mind me.

JBI

I always enjoy your TA as I know it comes form the heart with an honest assessment of things. What has got me on the cautious side is not just the gold chart but there are some big caps that are looking alittle toppy in here also.
All the best to you TQ…Rambus

The suspense was killing me. 

You know there is a quiet, unassuming other member of this team known to many as KA, Master of the Technical Universe. He abhors any mention, but he is hands on with all our efforts. We call him the “Mountain” as in gone to the Mountain and come down with the tablets.

The basic and most important word is that this unnerving action in gold to the general community is seen by us as the perfect action, setting the stage properly for the acquisition of $1650. Major-major support starts at $910 and floats around $887.50. The lower level need not be seen. In a time sense the violent chop is measured in weeks, not months.

The most interesting item concerning my recent trip to the Mountain is that the Tablet reads, “Jim is too conservative. Gold is going much higher than $1650.”

So my question is “Why fear when the mountain is here?”

roll up, roll up for a bargain….buy 10 pretty 1oz coins and only pay 50% markup…..roll up, roll up….bring ya money with ya.

Besides that issue, my points were raised to show that I have developed my own way; since you are so interested in JS million, you may have it.  I never mention it.  Nor do I covet it.

Everything was going along according to schedule until that Sunday night 2 weeks ago when gold was up over $30 and the chatter on the board was so positive. Well, just like all good tops, not many get out at the very top because things are so darn perfect that the mindset is, the market can’t go down. The very next day when we should have blasted through the top of that rising wedge we did just the opposite of what everyone was thinking me included. We tanked and tanked hard. How perfect. When everyone finally realized what had just happened, the blame starts to come out and instead of talking advantage of the situation most investors feel helpless and do nothing. If you could turn back the hands of time to that Sunday night 2 weeks ago, knowing that night may have marked an important top to some degree, how many folks would now sell 1/3 into strength? How many took advantage of last weeks rally to sell some into strength or took out some insurance just in case this correction goes deeper than what we might be thinking at this moment. One thing I know about the market is that there are no absolutes. Anything is possible at any given moment know matter how much we believe we are right. Back in late 1999 I believe, I sent a chart to my broker showing a beautiful H&S top on Cisco Systems in the upper 80’s. We discussed it and nothing more was said or done. That was over 8 years ago and he and a whole lot more folks are still waiting for that one last chance to sell at a high price that may or may not ever come. I remember him telling me how Cisco was going to grow there earnings and that it would be much higher in 1, 5 and 10 years, the fundamentals were perfect for growth going out as far as the eye can see. To walk out in the middle of the best party you were ever at is a very, very hard thing to do, and most won’t. I guess what I learned back then Fully, is that we never know which top is going to be the last top no matter how perfect things seem at the time, fundamentally or even technically. I’m not saying this bull market is over in the PM stocks by any stretch of the imagination. I believe we are just approaching the halfway point IMHO. “What if”, this top marks an important milestone for some time. I remember 1000 being a resistance zone on the Dow in the 70’s that held stocks in check for many years. I still remember to this day 1051 as the all time high for several years back then. We finally overcame 1000 for good in the early 80’s but there were many years where your capital was tied up waiting for and hoping for a new bull market to bail you out. I hate the feeling of being trapped and I know by reading some of the post on this forum that some folks are trapped. All they can do now is wait and hope for the bull market to enter the next bull phase where everything will go up again and all will be right with the world once more. I seen first hand form the tech rally back in the 90’s that alot of folks got trapped when the party was over but they didn’t realize the party was over until its too late. They are still waiting to just get out even 8 years later. Time will tell if this setback is just a minor inconvenience in this bull market or if it will be something more. I personally would like to see a 300 point trading range between 735 and 1035 so we can build up some strength to breakout above 1000 for good at some point, with conviction. If you are not trapped, a nice big 300 point trading range can offer up some good trading profits as we wait for the breakout of the 1000 area. Here are some updated charts you asked for fgc. No real technical damage has been done yet but we should have broken out through the top of that rising wedge not the bottom and that was a red flag for me. It just makes me cautious until we can change the technical picture somewhat and find this next bottom area. We are still looking ok on the HUI and I hope the 350 area will offer some good support if we get down to that level.
All the best to you fgc…Rambus
HUI 3 of III.

The dollar still in a waterfall.

You can see the monster growing. No real changes. Nothing broke.

It is a way to be involved in the discussion, to participate in the learning.  I  like, when those, like ferret just now, would disagree and give good reasons.

The learning of TA is not for all, and the learning of investing is not easy, and the trail in the wilderness is hard to read.  So for me the challenge is to read the trail signs.  I know that  the one that I track can hide his tracks, can use deception, can bushwack and surprise attack those who would follow him to success out of the wilderness.

So, as this is a serious business, I like the discussion.

Thank you ment17, and ferret, and

Cheers, TQ

But it is starting to look like I am replying only to your last one.  That is funny.

On to another point.  If JS made the offer then, how many took the offer as it stood; and how many ignored the double top, and did not exercise proper money management, but held instead, thinking that JS was encouraging just that, to hold.

Y es he had taught how to sell 1/3 into rises etc., but how many posted that they had?  So my point is, by denying the double top so strongly, was that teaching? Or was that pride talking?   And who did it serve?

keep the campfires burning. and all letter writers on thier toes. wj

They cannot suppress the physical POG/POS.  We are so close now to people saying “I do not want to pay $18 for an ounce of silver and have to wait three months for it.  I want to pay $22 and take delivery NOW!” 

In the last week I know three people who are buying physical for the first time.

I was chuckling just thinking how you would reply.

Back in early 2004 I forgot to ring the bell, so no one listened, or paid attention.  Nor did I pay a fat lady to sing.  So no one knew.  Just idle thoughts to many.

BTW in November 2005, when my article at GE indicated that the HUI was breaking out and was likely to go to new highs,  I missed all the laudations then too.

i do like js 1M bet to the sky is falling gang. frankly if i payed any attention the past 7 or so years in this bull i would have been invested in enron! bwahahahahahaha. wj

Glad to hear that you escaped the pokey…nice place I hear with open latrine and broken glass on the walls, couple hundred of your closest friends to keep you safe, and friendly staff to meet your every need. The blarney paid off this time. I gotta apologize to you. I checked my mobile messages this morning and there were two from you. I thought I had forwarded it to the number I was at..but, obviously not. I will make sure I forward it from now on. Still planning Barbados last week of June and can be there either before or after for short visit before big move.

If it happens it could the the hedge funds that some mention that ran natural gas and the softs up so much; maybe they will step in and run up gold and silver.

I don’t see why any would step in now when by shorting with the strength aginst weak longs they can make additional money forcing the downside, and then again on the turn around up.

Not that I should believe my own eyes, or my own thinking, of course, becuase DUH, who am I? Yet as the whole point has been to learn to be independent and not to rely on some guru; but to think for oneself; so it is natural that at times people of good will should disagree.

BTW, just for the record, (and I respect experience and success as much as any,)back in early 2004, when at GE Forum I was describing what appeared to be developing as a double top in the HUI, our good friend JS at the same time was not in that camp, so to speak. If I remember correctly some ink from that place wet the net to the effect that it was not a double top. Apirl Fools Day saw the double top begin to fulfill, back test and go to price objective; and JS well….. you have the memory of an elephant, so you know that he and I differed. So I trust my own counsel.

“Looking at fundamentals [bad smoke there from burning system] and reading all the news that basically suggests very strongly that the first inning has almost ended [meaning lots more bad stuff to be revealed in measured manner for years at this rate of decline],”

It is for that reason that I do not expect a big decline from here.  The first innings took gold over the $1,000, and in the break it has slipped back.  When the next innings starts it will shoot back well over $1,000 (and yea, verily, mayhaps even to $1,650 <g>, but not the second innings methinks), maybe $1,200 or $1,400, but much higher than the $1,000.  With each new innings it will become clearer to more people that there is no safe paper, of any sort (excluding, of course, toilet paper, which is perfectly safe if used in accordance with the manufacturers’ instructions) and tangibles are the only option.

The players are already marching out for the second innings.  The warm up acts (UBS writing down the value of clients’ brokerage accounts by up to 20%, Philadelphia cutting off credit completely by prohibiting foreclosures) have finished, get ready for the next shoe to drop.

I was in the dining room with the children and my wife, playing Pollyanna Dixie.  Nice fire in the fireplace too.

Cheers, TQ

the point is … yes they may know gold will go to 1600 whatever.. they now are calling for big lows ..

so this an easy 1 million for them .. they throw this much around on a put.

what he is saying is that the bears are all talk and no potatoes .. they scare the living heck out of the population with junk and crap..

if they have the balls to put out predictions for others to follow then have the squarellys to back the trap.. lol

sure most of these predictors in my opinion are trading pieces of 250 please and most would have trouble finding a wooden nickle ..

You do a thorough job of detailing your thinking, and those who would learn are well served by your concientious approach to TA.

Here is a short look at some of my current thinking.

Looking at fundamentals [bad smoke there from burning system] and reading all the news that basically suggests very strongly that the first inning has almost ended [meaning lots more bad stuff to be revealed in measured manner for years at this rate of decline], I am reluctant to think at this point that there is much reason to expect a rally here or near.
Looking at the weekly chart I see a bear flag forming at $900 area, with price objective just under $800 [so the $730 top some years ago may be support.] I know that some expect big things here, but I don’t.
MACD and stochastics won’t support a technicals based rally here, if they have any meaning at this point. Yes of course the selling of gold could end soon, and we could see it rally into a stock market burnup, but what are the odds?
The failure of the $TSX to move higher than 14,000 in February is troubling; and it would not surprise me to see its double top, and the double tops and H&S tops in the major indexes go on now to fulfill. It took them a long time to get here; so it could take them a long time to grind to their cycle lows.

Good luck with your trades,

I have landed safe and sound. A little later than expected.
Now for the good stuff…these sob at the airport. I got too relaxed getting through ours and forgot to keep my guard up dowb here,. Could have socked the cash but in all the trips my angelic face got me by. Whooo new hire [girl] she got me with the peanut butter then to the cash then silver maples [which I said was tin] How much she say how much each man….I say they only worth what someone pay man …..now gold buff’s get found;I say they are bronze comemorative coins OK she say how much I say 50 each..she say ooooo now we over 10,000 limit ..you say 0 on your declaration must get boss… Boss say hmmm you over 10,000 I could put you in jail…I say yer wrong …and if Mike Young adds it up while I sit at Queens st. Station I bet he comes up short of 10,000!….Hmmm say boss looking at me like I just kicked him in the throat…How about you pay 20 belize on this peanut butter and sausages …I say OK man thank you very much sir..and what is your name again sir…ahhh thanks I appreciate it sir…… I was Over waaaaay over…But Seattle Sun didn’t have 10 dimes on me soooo he loses.
Everyone. if you do a lot of metal on a trip keep the cash in yer sock. It was my laziness with about 4800 that really started the avalanche. All the tin and bronze B.S worked fine. Love ya all …the bottom is somewhere here hey Ment run those 10 second charts for us so we know where we are at. Haaa