I think oil has completed an impulsive up wave and that the B part of the correction will be complex and long and either a triangle but more likely a flat.

I still hold the idea that we have completed a 7 year wave 1 in the pm’s - so the wave 2 would be long say maybe even 2 years using a rule of thumb ratio to wave 1. It could be a flat or a triangle but as you know usually wave 2’s are steep and brutal. In the grains, weather aside, I really don’t have a feel for how steep the correction will be. For a time, I thought since these are mostly demand driven rather than event driven that the correction would be rather shallow and a sideways affair as oil. And with the commodity funds buying grains with oil this makes sense. But looking at the soybean chart, I don’t get that feel - it looks like it will be ugly. Corn, on the other hand, does give that feel.

As far as industrial commodities, since I still believe we will see good stock market prices (as you did though you may have changed your position) I would expect these commodities to hold up rather well but correct nonetheless.

But I still believe we are in a decades long bull market in most, if not all, commodities. So in say 20 years I expect all commodities and especially pm’s to be much, much higher.

aurum (commodities pm’s)