So I’m putting some things down and throwing them out there for everyone to take shots at.  Comments/contructive criticisms would be appreciated.

Trying to figure out the intermediate (3 month) and longer term 6 month+ trends in the general stock markets.

First Dow,

daily

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s100833820]&disp=P

this looks like we have reached a support line  and are getting ready to bounce.

weekly is oversold and trying to bounce.  Might have broken support tho.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s111092977]&disp=P

Monthly is sitting on a fib line, so confirms the possibility of a bounce.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s106805284]&disp=P

another view shows longer term fib and angled trend support line not far below

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s80141307]&disp=P

Nasdaq daily looks similar although it is trying to break the trendline but divergence in the indicators implies a bounce coming.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s79295231]&disp=P

but my crude attempts to do a wave count on the monthly show a clear long term top

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID1842373&cmd=show[s131015847]&disp=P

OK.  I’ve sat back and let the above sink in for an hour and here is what I see.

The dow monthly has been in a clear correction for 6 months.  previous corrections have gone from 9 months to 3 years depending on the degree of the wave that is correcting.   I think we are near the end of an “A” wave of an A_B_C correction.  If so then we bounce for 3-6 months(B wave) then go down for the C wave, probably to 10000 or so.  The end of the B wave puts us pretty near the elections.  If the democrats take power, in white house and congress then the threat of increased taxes could trigger the next downtrend (C wave) to occur as folks try to get out before it takes effect.

This roll-over in the general markets would go along with Goldrunners thoughts that the SM would have to roll-over before money would flee the general market and flow to PMs.  A bounce in the SM would provide an exit point for smart money to leave and if a fraction of it flows to PMs then hopefully that would kickstart some of the smaller explorers.

Soee, I think you suggested last night something about a bounce coming with the Armstrong turn date this month?????  The above would seem to tie in with it.

Again, I would appreciate to hear everyones thoughts on the above.

thanks

y2kdon