Poster’s Paradise

Don’t Cry for Sambucca! 

While he was out at around 400 on the HUI due to the MACD cross and high RSI, so was I in most of my trading positions.  I did get in and out twice more before HUI 460,  I expect he did also but I do not know that for sure as I have not spoken with him.   I also expect he got out around 440/435 on this recent move down, as I did.   As I remember, he nailed the up move at around 290 HUI and rode it hard to 400. 

Personally, I wish Sambucca was still posting because he and I trade a similar system and it was always good conformation for me.   I do not get ALL the moves and I do not get the exact high or lows, but I get probably 75%/80% of the moves and that is enough for latte’s and taco’s! 

I guess what I am trying to say is that IF one has a system or plan that he uses to trade, then you have to adhere to the signals you use,  that is what he did and I expect he has made a lot of $$$$ since the last time he posted here.    Have a great weekend!

Is it possible to know whether GS had a position in Enron and what they were doing with it while they recommended buying? Maybe GS was selling?

“Silver accomplished in 13 weeks, what it took 32 weeks to do in 05.”

 I don’t think so, in fact, if we bottomed in Silver this week(or next), the number of weeks are almost exactly the same.  This momentum run is almost exactly perfect in time and in “price”, and I suspect it will remain that way all the way to the top……………an almost perfect fractal to date.

“Non-Docky”……………..

I don’t see all the reason for so many to be so unwrapped at this time, in fact, I don’t see any reason to be the least bit concerned at this time.  In fact, I think the “unwrapped statements” are a perfect symptom that screams “Bottom Approaching!”  The USD rally has been a nickel-flip at best at this time.  It’s not even a good squiggle in the downtrend of the USD.  The odds are that it gets rejected at 77 at angled resistance and at the 50 day MA, if not a bit higher.  By the end of next week the re-test should be complete. 

The psychology is so far flung away from the fundmentals in the PM sector  it is just crazy at this time.  Thus, we should see the PM sector rally back to the fundamentals, then overshoot on the upside of that mark………

Those getting caught up in the “craze” over the Fed cutting rates are looking at the Fed desperately trying to look like they are still “in control.”  They are……they are printing like crazy, cutting the legs out from under the dollar to the point that it is in free-fall for all intensive purposes.  Rates mean absolutely nothing at this time, in fact, they haven’t for a long time.  The maniacal printing by the Fed is the real game.  Sure, they will probably cut rates,  maybe as soon as the employment numbers this coming Friday, or based on the employment numbers…..and they’ll claim the “rate cut was the culprit”….”Please?”………….GS coming out and jawboning recently simply means, IMO, that they are runing the downside to finish loading up for one heck of a PM run.  Da boyz always come out and state the opposite of what they are doing.   They come out with positive Gold projections at tops- the opposite at bottoms.  The Street has become the gutter. 

The LT fractal in the $Gold chart remains intact as does the intermediate fractal in the Silver chart.  I expect that many comments made this week will be eaten over the next several weeks as the HUI takes off for 600 to 640.

Just my opinion…………..

goldtent.com/wp_gold/2007/05/17/on-days-like-yesterday/

Outside of here I have never heard of Kaplan nor read anything of his - I have heard him mentioned here with derision from time to time. I do not subscribe nor read but one or two newletters and those not for trading advice. Your correlation comment is not clear to me. When I look at any chart I try to look with an open mind and I automatically do wave counts even if it is a chart of our phone bill. It is just a habit. I use no chants though I know you are kidding.

I did once post a picture here on the Tent of Barney in front of a spirit house looking for market direction inspiration. You might find that on a search. That stuff is his area.

aurum

See y’all at coffee in the morning.

aurum

….dont you think if you are using E Wave and t A….you are betting on past corelations repeating……

…the first thing tonite we agree on though is that gold can and will rally no matter if the buck tanks or not…cause its going up in All Currencies……

goldtent.com/wp_gold/2007/11/25/global-fiat-currencies-global-inflation-data/

….I guess to sum up..you look at charts and then sit back and go Ooohhhhmmmmm….

…….are you sure yu are not reading Kaplan again…he is dangerous you know

I miss his posts. And he was right many times. Yes he missed that one rally (or perhaps others). Still the secret IMO is money management and I suspect he did that so I am not worried about one wrong call.

I have to be confident in what I do - I don’t think you can win without confidence. Now that does not mean I do not have exit plans in case I am wrong which of course I will be from time to time. For example I posted what my exit plans and points were on the Dow to Ment I think last night in my Dow outlook that he jokingly asked me for. I think he thinks everyone knows it is going down. Ment correct me if I am wrong here. But I don’t think it is going down and I suspect there are a lot of shorts not sleeping easily tonight.

aurum DJIA

previous conversations on gold Forum, I stand by my decision to switch from AUA (for which I was quite enthusiastic on Gold Forum about 3 years ago) to Roca (ROK.V).  I am not posting the AUA 3-year chart since AUA holders know what it looks like, but below is the 3-year chart for Roca.  Our exposure to the moly play is through Amerigo, Northern Dynasty, and Roca, so I am not anxious to get deeper into this specific metal sector by adding a fourth holding which, if I did it, would likely be  AUA. 

If anyone has countering opinions that AUA is a better bet than ROK in terms of production schedule, resources in the ground in the project area, relations with aboriginal interests in the project area, or other relevant criteria for comparing AUA and ROK, I would welcome any postings on the subject.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROK.V&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83832138808

While I do think from time to time as now (US Dollar) one market is key to others that does not mean that it causes the moves in the others - it might be what do they call that - not coincidental no but what causes one causes the other.

Anyway, I look at each market separately and I don’t care what other markets are doing it is only that one market that I am looking at - I don’t want to be biased by believeing that because I have this opinion about one market it means I have to think something else about another market. As TQ said look at each chart with a blank mind.

For example it will not surprise me to see the US Dollar rally much higher and longer than most expect but yet at the same time (after a few months from now) gold will also rally. Now a person might see the US Dollar rallying and say well gold will not rally. That is not looking at the chart with an open mind.

Yes I know I often use explanations that well this happened so that happened myself, but I do it because it is something everyone wants and believes in. The truth, IMO, is too hard to explain.

aurum charts Zen

Thanks for your thoughts and reasoning concerning what you have done and are doing.  Have a good weekend!

…If you see the U S Dollar in rally Mode….How can you be Long U S Stocks…..For the longest time the US Stock market only goes up when the Dollar Falls……careful in being too sure..remember Sambucca..?

…still in Self Imposed Detention over missing the last move……

interesting chart of Dow in Euros….

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=:&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=6&id=p06702238011

I should have added that I sometimes do not resolve counts satisfactorily to my mind so this is not that rare. Usually the difference makes no difference to the investment plan. For example were I a buy and hold whether my count or anyone else’s that I have seen is correct would not matter - all point up in one way or another. My plan called for $850 pog in December - it came in November a month early. I planned to sell all in early December anyway so why not just do it in mid-November which would give the bonus of I thought from the charts of having money to catch the US Dollar and most world stock market lows. I don’t really get concerned that I can’t come up with a neat and straightforward count on the smaller degrees except were I to be around as we get near the end of this mega cycle bull - but then too I would sell early. I often do and I try to.

aurum pog EW

But here is the problem for the Cartel:

I admire Rambus greatly. In fact his count and charts on the world stock markets were one reason I invested the way I have in them. But I do not believe we are in Wave III in any pm market that I follow. I could come up with alternate counts, no doubt, to this year’s moves that would not break any rules - but to what purpose? This correction will identify itself in time and all will be hopefully clear. I have taken this path so spending time now on the charts is perhaps interesting but to no purpose.

I can say were I to buy back the stocks I sold I could get them much cheaper today than I sold them for. And I believe in my ability to get them back at a lower price than I sold them - now it may be even higher than today but still lower than I sold them. But I don’t think so. Some weeks a go in talking about the US Dollar I posted that I thought it was the key to many markets. Seeing the chart that screamed “I am going up” convinced me to sell almost all grain and to buy US stocks (as well as world stocks) and to sell pm’s more readily than I might have. I still believe, for now, that the US Dollar chart is the one to watch.

aurum HUI, US Dollar, Stock Market

….for me …i never thought about when I will sell Physical….How will I know when to sell it…?…Probably will only sell what I need or want to Buy….a Yacht.?..a Harley…?…a Boeing..?…hehe..

..as far as stocks go I would like to think I will sell more and more as we move up…and convert to a higher and Higher % of Phys…..its in my mind right now if my pf appreciates by 50% or so…I will tun that 50% in for whatever phys it will buy..and still have a pf same as today….

….I ask again…what do you disagree with in Rambus work..on HUI E W….?

goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/gold-eliot.png

Originally, as you may recall, I thought the rally would last into late December possibly early in January. That would have been the usual 6-8 month rally. And then I expected the whole move from 2000 to correct. When the drop came in mid-November that should not have happened there under my scenario, I knew something was wrong. I had been moving out anyway on the rallies and was out of all Juniors except for RBY. You may recall I suggested on the Tent to use rallies to move out of Juniors and into Majors a couple of months at least ago. In fact I posted and I did use the proceeds of the Juniors to buy SLV as it seemed to be lagging GLD at the time and I felt it to be a more sure investment rather then stock picking at that late stage. And BTW RBY should have broken out of the triangle when the HUI rallied before mid-November and then retested the triangle. It did not so that meant to me sell. In any case with the few majors (AEM, GG, SLW, SSRI, and some others) and RBY I waited for the rule of thumb 50% retracement of that steep mid-November drop and sold all. I did this because even if I was early and the mid-November drop was just some event still I could hear the roar of the waterfall. When I sold all (and from my families accounts also), I also emailed a couple of people to tell them what I was doing. These folks had emailed me from time to time and seemed interested in what I was doing.

There was IMO always something about that move up from a late start that should have started in May to June and seemed to but then took that nasty dip but then turned around and went in a too narrow channel too far too fast. It just didn’t feel right so I had no problem jumping perhaps early.

I still think we will get a rally in mid-December but from what point and for how high? Nonetheless I may trade it with GLD or GDX. But I still think the correction will be months not weeks so we have some quite of bit of time left in it IMO. As far as the long sideways correction it is typical of a wave 4 or possibly a wave B. I know neither seems right so don’t argue please with me - a wave 4 should bring a real wave 5 and the move up seems as most folks want it to be just wave 1 of a bigger impulsive up wave - but it is not IM strong O.. Otherwise the wave 5 seems a runt but not enough of a runt to be a failed fifth - truncated fifth. It is even less likely a B because of the height that was achieved IMO.

No I always struggled with the wave 1 of that last run up before mid-November and now I struggle with the runt wave 5 if that is what it is. I was going to spend more time on it but I decided I would just give myself a headache and probably never reach a satisfactorily conclusion. But when things contradict my scenario I generally retreat to regroup. In any case I wanted to change the whole character of my (and my families portfolios). We had been entirely in pm’s and a few base metal stocks. I wanted to have a substantial position in world stock markets and energy and even the US Dollar so I went to 100% cash in mid-November. I can tell you I can’t ever recall moving from fully invested as I was (I even bought pm’s in my checking account) in the late summer to 100% cash in mid-November - making that big of a change. I generally move slowly in and out.

And in the week or so after going to all cash I have moved about 75% of everyone’s money back into this time stock market and US dollar ETF’s. In a few months (not counting the possible December trade) I will buy pm’s and I will sell some of the above positions so that I can invest say 40-50% in pm’s and base metals. When I do this I will post and put the charts on the Tent of the bigger positions and ones I have more confidence in. I have done that with the bigger positions I have in the Vanguard stock market ETF’s. Those charts are over at IMDB.

www.goldtent.com/phpbb_admin/viewtopic.php?t=130

I will spent more time on the HUI chart as this correction and likely December rally play out. I posted quite a few days ago that I thought the short termers would have two chances to exit - well the first has come and gone on November 23. The second IMO will be in mid-December. That will be the last chance for the short termers (traders) IMO. Buy and hold folks will hold (I hope) as there are IMO much, much higher prices ahead. Nonetheless I expect the correction to last months.

But to finally answer your question - the long consolidation could be typical perhaps in a wave 4. The shortness and oddity though of this last move has me baffled for now but it does not IMO change what is coming and what I think now has already started.

aurum HUI EW

…not even a blip on this chart (Rambus’s )

goldtent.com/wp_gold/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/rambusdollar2.png

Where do you see it bouncing to….?

….my guess is 76.5…..as an absolute max….

One can only try to narrow the odds on any investment.  I take that process seriously.  That doesn’t prevent the possibilty of disappointment…but nothing removes the risks totally.  So we try to do the best we can and share our efforts with friends.  The tent gives us a venue…you have given valuable information and it was noted…have a great weekend.

PS…seems your life in forestry related ventures was most enjoyable…I envy you.

….and another bar added to the chart that will need more room on top soon…..looking forward to December at the TENT!

Goodnight, everyone.

JBI

It is criminal…what has transpired.  With full intent and purpose…named “greed”…these spineless bastards have managed to disrupt and perhaps destroy the savings and retirement funds of millions. 

PM and copper holdings crumbled in the face of a phony show of strength in the US dollar index that Taseko was defying the odds by creeping upwards on several successive days. I wonder what the “ beggar nation” (not my term - it is from Dan Norcini on JSMineset on 28 Nov 07) will do with the US dollar index between now and Christmas?  Whatever they do, it is a bit of comfort to me that there may be some stocks, and perhaps Taseko may among them, that can ignore the idiocy of those trying to create a strong US dollar to help suppress the price of gold.  I would like to think that there are some investments immune to the idiocy we see around us, but I have difficult finding such gems.  Wishing you a pleasant weekend.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TKO.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p89216212317

I would be remiss if I didn’t thank you in return for all the great content you have provided the inhabitants of this humble tent…my best regards for you and yours.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Citigroup Inc. (C:

Citigroup, Inc

 Last: 33.30+1.01+3.13%

C 33.30, +1.01, +3.1%) said late Friday that it has reduced the assets of so-called structured investment vehicles (SIVs) the bank sponsors. Assets in the SIVs the company advises have declined to $66 billion as of Nov. 30 from $83 billion at the end of September, a Citigroup spokesman said in an e-mailed statement. “The funding strategy for Citi-advised SIVs remains unchanged from the disclosures in our third quarter 10Q filing,” he added. “We continue to focus on liquidity and reducing leverage.” Moody’s Investors Service said earlier on Friday that it may downgrade the ratings of some SIVs sponsored by Citi, including Sedna Finance and Zela Finance.