I am financially uneducated, can hardly draw a trendline and am lazy and disorganized so I eyeball them, but I have been watching this stuff almost daily, sometimes all-daily and I have watched the Chartists look like genius’s and then miss the mark widely. The last month has been spooky. We got clipped with the market with the subprime, rebounded. Many called for a rebound and many feared another “Hit” sat on the side in cash, and missed a good rebound here. The freakshow was puntuated with Astrological and Rumour sources of horror around the 3rd week of September which turned out a good time for PM stocks, and here we are looking “Toppy” on Charts and the Commercials have taken up the short position in huge numbers which usually means we get Hit BIGTIME, but the Fundamentals are SCREAMING in favor of the financial fears driving money into PM”s, Oil High, Dollar falling like a Rock etc etc etc.

A friend to whom I just explained EVERYTHING we talk about   made two comments today.”

1) “None of the Candidates have mentioned ANY of these things” -( FED, FDA, Dollar, Gold Standard etc , Bankers)

2) “I must say, Gold has just suddenly started to be advertised in the media as a good investment. I have seen it everywhere just lately”

That number 2 is a HUGE indicator to me !!!! Some public involvement is key here !!!

Charts are based on past performance, patterns, and try to equate today’s situation with “similar” situations in the past. They work a PERCENTAGE of the time and some technicians have calculated these percentages through computer backtesting of their technical indicators. It seems to me that most of the accuracy occurs when the fundamentals are SIMILAR enoughso that whatever the technicals pick up will play out similarly. Some of it these days may be self perpetuating because with so many technical traders handling so much money there are many who buy soley because the Chart tells them to !!!! But there IS a percentage of failure when something perhaps OVERIDES whatever makes charts work when they do.

From the Man in The Street view, I believe that unusual events that get a lot of attention for good or ill would account for much of these “Aberrations From The Pattern” noted in Charts and their indicators. So TODAY , here we sit with Toppy Charts and some other overbought indicators, shorts lining up, and what shall we do??

I think it is dangerous now to second guess The Bull. Today is a complete anonmoly. Wave 1 and 2 did not have immediate bank failures , Financial meltdowns, the Dollar making 23 year lows, Oil at 83 setting a new record and more all at once.

I get emails from Peter Degraf for free and he sends charts etc and said the charts look like we’re ready to “Correct” but that  “THESE ARE UNUSUAL TIMES AND IT CAN BE DANGEROUS TO SECOND GUESS THE BULL” It was nice to see a chartist express what I have been feeling and sometimes saying.  I don’t think you can chart annomolies, but I do think that all these indicators do reflect something and will eventually have influence, but that TODAY is so different than the times reflected in similar patterns in the charts, that you cannot trust on DEJA VUE becuse we ain’t never seen Nuttin’ like what’s going down right now and it’s still playing out. I wonder how the bank failure will play out in the market tomorrow !!!

Good Luck All !!!!

H umanoid